IMF idea: German Savers to Forfeit a Tenth of Their Assets

So far, German savers mentioned are still safe in the euro debt crisis. But a mind game of the IMF can set off alarm bells . The currency experts pontificate about a unique, ten percent special levy .
Yet it is only a mind game that reveals the ideas of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF) in its current state debt report - and what it has in mind for savers in Germany itself. The idea of ​​the IMF: In addition to the countries whose citizens themselves could also make a direct contribution to reduce the national debt in the euro area to a manageable level, all who are capable to contribute will.

A corresponding passage discovered the editorial staff of the "Welt am Sonntag " on page 49 of the current IMF report . There, the IMF experts describe in a thought experiment that the part of private assets in excess of its own debt, could be loaded once at a rate of ten percent. This could bring the debt within the monetary union of the state to 2007 levels. In relation to gross domestic product (GDP) at the time it was a healthy 66 percent - in 2012 the debt-to-GDP ratio was almost 91 percent.

Total asset growth would be destroyed
For Germany, this would mean that the national debt would be reduced by about 576 billion euros, if the debt ratio expected to be reached are 2007 levels. Between 2007 and 2012, the private fortunes of the Germans grew by 551 billion euros over five trillion euros, as figures show for the Bundesbank. Were the IMF idea to become reality, this would mean that savers would forfeit a large part of this increase again.

The IMF said on Tuesday that it was a purely theoretical thought experiment : "There is no such requirement from the IMF ," said a spokeswoman .

Thorsten Polleit, chief economist at Degussa's gold trade, expected financial assets would be destroyed by such a huge step in the euro zone. "To the sovereign debt in the euro area to 60 percent of GDP (one of the stability criteria, note) to reduce the debt by more than 3,000 billion euros, or about 30 percent of national income would be reduced - not even counting bank debt. "

"Nothing is impossible "
Since it is only an idea at the IMF model, it is unclear whether and in what amount the savers in the euro area should actually be faced with a capital levy. However polleit holds nothing is impossible. " If a tax, these could also be imposed retroactively ," the chief economist warns in an interview with FOCUS Online
Assets would then escape not help since the release anfiele on the amount of assets as they existed at a particular date in the past . The policy would not hesitate with such a long step , says Polleit . Once they have saved the credit system from collapse, they 'll be in a second step to try to reduce the excessive debt burden. " These are probably many paths trodden simultaneously or in succession."

Sourced from:
http://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/staatsverschuldung/tid-34471/sparer-sollen-bluten-irre-iwf-idee-zehn-prozent-sonderabgabe-auf-deutsche-sparguthaben_aid_1147912.html

Translated by: Gabriel Abram

Syria: Anti-Assad Operations Commence; Jordanian, American, and Israeli Commandos Enter into Syria.

INFO LE FIGARO - According to our information, the regime's opponents, supervised by Jordanian, Israeli and American commandos have been moving towards Damascus since mid-August. This attack could explain the possible use of chemical weapons by the Syrian president.

While it is too early to rule out categorically the argument put forward by Damascus and Moscow, who blame the massacre on the Syrian opposition, it is already possible to provide answers to a troubling question. What benefit would Assad have to launch an unconventional attack at the precise moment he had allowed UN inspectors - after being stranded for several months - to investigate the use of chemical weapons?
Operational logic first. According to information obtained by Le Figaro, those first trained in guerrilla warfare by the Americans in Jordan Syrian troops entered into action since mid-August in southern Syria, in the region of Deraa. A first group of 300 men, probably supported by Israeli and Jordanian commandos, as well as men of the CIA, had crossed the border on August 17th. A second group should have joined the 19. According to military sources, the Americans, who do not want to put troops on Syrian soil, or arm rebels in part controlled by radical Islamists. The Americans have quietly been setting up a training camp for several months at the border of Jordan, training groups such as: Syrian fighters ASL, the Free Syrian Army, and other handpicked groups.

Sense of impunity

As for the summer, their protection has begun to shake Syrian battalions in the south, approaching the capital. "Their thrust would now be felt into the Ghouta, where formations of ASL were already at work, but really can make a difference on the outskirts of Damascus fortress," says David Rigoulet-Roze, a researcher at the French Institute for Strategic Analysis (IFAS).
According to this expert on the region, the idea proposed by Washington would be the possible establishment of a buffer zone from the south of Syria, or even a no-fly zone, which would bring opponents safety until the balance of power changes. This is the reason why the United States has deployed Patriot batteries and F-16's in late June in Jordan.
Recent military pressure against al-Ghouta threatens the capital Damascus, the heart of the Syrian regime. In July, the spokesman of President al-Assad had publicly stated that the regime would not use chemical weapons in Syria "except in case of external aggression." The intrusion of foreign agents in the south, for example ...
The other reason, if the army has actually committed a massacre in Damascus using chemical weapons, is more diplomatic. Since August, 2012, when Barack Obama warned that the use of chemical weapons was a "red line" that, once crossed, could trigger a military intervention, thirteen smaller chemical attacks have been identified without causing American reaction. Admittedly, the evidence is difficult to obtain, since Damascus routinely blocks the work of UN investigators. The sense of impunity felt by the Syrian regime is reinforced by the Russian protection afforded to the Security Council of the UN. Barack Obama, when he arrived at the White House, the Kremlin had proposed a "reset" of relations, not to break the link with Moscow. U.S. Chief of Staff, Martin Dempsey, the principal military adviser, justifies his opposition to intervention, even limited by the fragmentation of the Syrian opposition and the weight exerted by extremist groups.

What are the options?

If the Syrian regime is actually behind the chemical bombardment of Damascus, it will take a further degree of intervention in a conflict that has claimed more than 100,000 lives. "There is more of a small-scale test as before. Chemical weapons are now part of the war, where they play a deterrent role. This is a message to the Americans. It is also a challenge to Barack Obama, who risks losing its legitimacy with its allies in the world, "an expert analysis of the case.
Along with clandestine operations from Jordanian soil, each time the crisis is reaching a peak, the international community reconsiders the various military options. Arming the rebels? "If we do one day we will not say," said a diplomatic source. Surgical air strikes? Possible, but the solution involves risk regionalization of the conflict. Special forces to secure and neutralize chemical weapons sites? Israel hit neighboring Syria repeatedly. But Western intelligence services did not want to risk that stock of chemical weapons falling into the hands of jihadist groups. Last option: inaction. It is that which seems  Bashar al-Assad has bet on in Damascus.

Sourced from:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2013/08/22/01003-20130822ARTFIG00438-syrie-l-operation-anti-assad-a-commence.php

Translated by: Gabriel Abram

2012 4th Quarter Results Expected to Finish Strongly, Despite Fiscal Cliff

Investors have been pulling out of stocks in recent days over fears the U.S. would not properly handle the Fiscal Cliff crisis which has been plaguing headlines since the summer of 2011. However, this is not a logical decision to make, as the cliff has been expected for a long time now. Many companies have already made contingency plans for a fiscal cliff in full expectation for the cliff to be reached, and for most companies, the cliff is already priced in.

It is for this reason that now is actually the best time to invest, especially in strong, well known companies whose prices generally remain high. Due to the fact that most of these companies already have contingency plans and are well prepared for a fiscal cliff, but are also extremely improbable to fail due to a budget failure, these well known companies make for extremely good picks. Stocks I would recommend investing in are classics such as F, AAPL, and WMT.

The Fiscal Cliff has recently been making headlines in such ridiculous ways that the market is being adversely influenced, especially with such titles as "Consumers Holding Back on Spending Due to Fiscal Cliff", or "Fiscal Cliff Worrying Consumers". Fortunately, these are baseless rumors designed to influence the market and bring company prices down to profitable levels before they surge back to normal after 4th quarter reports are released. U.S. consumers are very unlikely to consider the fiscal cliff while making their purchases, especially not while they have the money and are purchasing gifts for their loved ones. They are the last to consider the taxes for next year, and leaves much to be admired for news companies that release such baseless rumors.

Another factor to consider is that taxes for the middle class at the federal level are expected to increase by 5% if the U.S. fails to come up with a budget. However, most Americans already pay 5% or more at the state level, meaning people may call on their states to lower taxes to equalize their citizens budgets. Some states like New Hampshire have no income or sales tax however, so a Fiscal Cliff would simply bring these states without these taxes to the same tax levels as the rest of the country, proving these tax rates are very survivable.

Iranian Oil Reliance Hurting Consumers Globally Due to Futures Trading

As tensions with Iran cause investors to sway back and forth with each passing headline, we are all beginning to feel the burden. The fears and concerns investors have over the future of oil and it's uncertainty has caused it to spike to an uncomfortable $126 per barrel. As Iran has announced that it will halt oil shipments to Britain and France before the allotted 6 month period to find new suppliers, it caused investors to scramble over uncertainty of Europe's oil supply, even though Iran only supplies France with 3% of its oil and Britain had already stopped buying from Iran, this shift in the oil trade still caused mass disruption. This is where things become upsetting.

It is estimated that for every cent that gasoline goes up per gallon, 1 billion dollars less are spent per year by Americans. This recent spike of roughly $15 dollars since January 3rd to today makes gasoline prices a harsh 35.7 cents higher per gallon. When gas prices go higher, people have less of an inclination to go out and make purchases, especially since they have less money to spend in the first place. Take the estimated 1 billion less being spent per year and calculate it for just the one month left before the first quarter is over, and we already have an incredible 2.975 billion less being spent in the economy.

We know what this means. Less people will be out shopping and making purchases, focusing more resources towards necessities, while the rest of the economy will begin to slump, with shrinking profits overall. Once Q1 is over it will be revealed in the reports that many companies will have undershot expected earnings, and concerned investors may begin to drop out. This may cause a noticeable correction in the market, and we may even end up seeing a repeat of the summer, with incredible volatility and consistent daily changes of the Dow Jones in the hundreds. This will not last long as the market evens out again, but this drop will be an expected market correction, as the Dow is currently at a 4 and half year high and appears to be a bubble waiting to burst.

There is a bright side to all of this, however. With the market correction expected, and the Dow finally dropping, oil can also be expected to drop with the tide of the Dow. This will help ease the strain on the already fragile economy and more money will start to be spent. For investors, be aware that this temporary drop in oil prices will be the best time to buy. I highly recommend looking into purchasing Oil Futures options (for experienced investors), or looking into an exchange-traded fund such as USO. Or even the stock of some of the oil companies themselves, such as Exxon.

This will not be a losing investment, because even though the price of oil will fall with the market, once another headline from Iran comes into view and more tensions begin, investors will remember why oil was so high in the first place and it will once again spike up. You must wait for the market pullback. If you buy-in before, you will lose on the drop. Expect earnings reports to cause minor market corrections.